You see a Key Concept, one of the most important principles according to which the world in general and the world of people operate.
These concepts are referenced throughout the Patterns series, including the Patterns for Victory series and Us or Them!. A concise summary and two or three key examples are provided at the beginning of each volume. See other key reconceptualizations.
These are events that are impossible to predict because they cannot be "deduced" from currently observed characteristics of the system and its operating environment. Nassim Taleb, author of the book Black Swan, provides an iconic triple example of a Las Vegas casino. It was the unsuccessful actions of professional card counters or tricksters to outplay the casino that threatened its existence. Among the events causing existential threats were, among others, the casino accountant's failure to report large winnings to the IRS (Internal Revenue Service) and the owner's withdrawal of ransom money from the casino cash register for his kidnapped daughter.
When a black swan occurs, systems unpredictably become more or less vulnerable to damage – they undergo a so-called stress test. The inherent inability of the system (e.g., a superpower) to predict such events and, therefore, to take preventive measures that could limit the damage. The ability to bring such events into being is the ability to attack at the level of a Master. The Chinese Holy Man is an important caveat, and at the same time a warning against "soundingly wise observations." What doesn't kill us the first time weakens us and will kill us the next time. Examples include exposure to heavy metal vapors and radioactive isotopes.
a master of attuning himself to naturally and spontaneously occurring events and trends. The emergence of the coronavirus in 2020 was a black swan: it shattered all predictions and plans made and laid by corporations and major powers on the geopolitical stage.